Conclusion

It did not take much time to make up for the worldwide decline in electricity output recorded between 2008 and 2009 (120.1 TWh) – the only one on record in these last forty years – as 2010 witnessed the highest increase in electricity output in absolute terms since electricity has been used as energy. Just short of an additional 1 100 TWh was generated in a single year, which equates to 5.5% growth in electricity production across the world. To put this into perspective, the additional production amounts to the electricity output of a country like Japan… The previous record was set in 2007 when the twelve-month increase in output over 2006 was 832.2 TWh.
Most of this increase was generated in Asia, primarily China (which added 498.1 TWh), but also in the so-called “developed” regions – North America and Western Europe – which adjusted their production following the sharp, uncharacteristic drops recorded in 2009. North American electricity output increased by 169.3 TWh between 2009 and 2010, yet this performance fell short of its 2008 level. Similarly, Western Europe produced an additional 125.1 TWh, but that was still below its 2007 level. The trend was similar, although less marked, in the CIS and Central Europe.
On the bright side, this extremely strong rally was not achieved at the expense of renewable electricity production. Yet again, and for the third year running, its growth overtook, albeit only just, that of conventional electricity production. They increased by 5.6% and 5.4% respectively between 2009 and 2010 and this was enough to enable renewables to hang on to their 19.6% share in this one-off growth context.
In the end, global renewable electricity production amounted to 4 158.5 TWh in 2010. It represents a 218.9 TWh increase over 2009… the biggest increase ever recorded. While all the renewable sectors took part in this increase, a few of them were particularly noteworthy.
The biggest contributor was hydropower, which increased output by 119.4 TWh to 3 448.2 TWh. Note that the bulk of the power was generated in East and South-East Asia. The region added 103.8 TWh, contrasting with the South and North American regions, which recorded lower levels of production. Asia as a whole was the target for new production facilities in the world. According to Enerdata, worldwide installed hydropower capacity was put at about 993 GW in 2009 (967 GW in 2008). The statistics body put this capacity at 783.6 GW in 2000 and 865.7 GW in 2005. Given the sector’s growth, global hydropower capacity should easily pass the 1 000 GW mark in 2010.
Hydropower growth should remain on course for several years. Construction on 172 GW of hydroelectric dams is underway across the world, including 70.9% in Asia, 10.8% in South America and 4.6% in Africa, according to the World Atlas of “The International Journal on Hydropower & Dams” magazine.
Solar power, whose output volume increased year-on-year by 56.4%, must take credit as the most outstanding renewable sector in 2010. Worldwide solar power production leapt to 33.2 TWh in 2010, which is 12 TWh more than in 2009. The installed capacity figure at the end of 2010 (38.5 GW) augurs well for sailing past 40 TWh in 2011 and the sector should continue grow at a vigorous pace for a number of years. Grid parity should be effective before 2020 in countries, such as Germany and Italy, where the electricity price is very high. China’s recent decision to develop a large-scale solar sector will also contribute to solar power’s growth. The country has set a 50-GW solar capacity target by 2020 as part of its 12th five-year plan. The revival of concentrated solar power production currently witnessed in Spain, the United States, and other regions such as North Africa and Australia, will add to this growth.
In 2010, the wind power sector also enjoyed strong growth (up 25.5% on 2009). It consolidated its status as the number two renewable sector for electricity production on the basis of its 344.8 TWh output in 2010. The wind power volume increase outstripped that of the nuclear power sector in 2010 if we compare their respective increases of 70.2 TWh and 56.8 TWh. Furthermore, prospects for growth in 2011 are looking very good as world installed capacity broke the 200-GW barrier at the beginning of the year. This will be boosted as the offshore segment builds up steam, starting in Europe.
The performance of the other renewable sectors was a little less impressive, nonetheless the outlook for growth is good. In 2010, the biomass sector which comprises the four main types of biomass fuel – solid biomass, biogas, renewable municipal waste and liquid biomass – kept growth at 6.5% over its 2009 level, and accounted for 263.2 TWh of production, which is 16.2 TWh more than in 2009. Even higher growth rates are expected for the years to come, primarily on the back of developments in biomass co-firing and cogeneration activities, starting in Europe, but also in North America and Asia. The next few years will see many coal-fired power plants coming to the end of their service lives in Europe and North America, and the operators are looking into the viability of incorporating biomass in co-firing, either following modernisation or replacement of existing plants. Many European Union Member States are pinning their hopes on the development of biomass cogeneration with a view to achieving their targets set for Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28. Under the terms of their National Renewable Energy Action Plans, these countries are planning to raise their biomass electricity contribution to 168.8 TWh by 2015 and to 231.9 TWh by 2020. The equivalent electricity capacity would be 32.3 GW in 2015 and 43.3 GW in 2020. Furthermore, biomass electricity should get a lift from technology developments in biomass pyrolysis, gasification and torrefaction (to produce biocoal).
Geothermal power should not be overlooked. The sector’s operators forecast significant growth in production capacities in forthcoming years, despite its very low growth in 2010. A report produced for the World Geothermal Conference held in Indonesia in April 2010, stated that installed geothermal capacity across the world should rise from 10 715 MW in 2010 to 18 500 MW in 2015.

While the renewable electricity production sectors appear to have a bright future ahead of them, this needs to be tempered by the admission that fossil fuel consumption (but not exclusively) for electricity production has been rising at a brisk pace. Of the additional 1 099.4 TWh produced between 2009 and 2010, 824.8 TWh was sourced from thermal power stations burning coal, gas or oil. The nuclear sector also made a positive contribution, but its 56.8 TWh increase between 2009 and 2010 is overshadowed by that of fossil fuels.
If we consider the production data over longer periods, we note that the pace growth in global electricity production has hardly let up in the last forty years. From 1971 to 2010, the mean annual growth rate was 3.6%. Between 2003 and 2010, mean annual growth was still at 3.4% (3.2% between 2000 and 2010). Worldwide electricity production has increased twofold since 1987 (10 577.8 TWh), threefold since 1976 (6 514.4 TWh), and fourfold since 1971 (5 257.2 TWh). Within the next five years, renewable electricity production should match this 1971 level.

Electricity production’s forward momentum means progress, economic and social development for humanity, however the resources tapped by this development are relentlessly depleting at an increasingly fast pace.
This situation cannot go on indefinitely, and in time the current growth model will have to be overhauled in favour of consuming better and sustainably. Groundwork needs to be laid to ensure that energy transition – one of the key planks of this sea change– occurs as smoothly as possible.
In the medium term, new facilities must be developed for storing energy when the grid is pushed to the limits of accommodating intermittent energy supplies. Potential solutions are increasing of pumped-storage capacities or storing renewable electricity in the form of hydrogen. The Germany operator E.ON reckons that up to 5% of hydrogen can be added to natural gas without causing problems. Some experts reckon that in the medium term this percentage could rise to as much as 15%. The installation of smart grids and interconnection of major the European and African grids will also allow the renewable electricity share to increase.
If no preparations are made to anticipate the emerging energy crisis, it is likely to be disproportionate to the debt crisis that is affecting many Western countries, because it affects the very foundations of our growth model. Bold policy measures will thus have to be taken however much they conflict with short-term logic and special interests. Implementing carbon tax on energy is just one such measure. This mechanism posited by the European Commission and already in place without any negative impact on GDP – quite the contrary – in Northern Europe, now seems essential for steering our economy and consumption patterns towards more sustainable development. The European Union has an historic role to play in this process – that of showing the world that this transition is possible.