Conclusion

Between 1998 and 2008, renewable electricity production in the world rose from 2,794.9 to 3,762.6 TWh, i.e. an additional 967.6 TWh – which equates to almost double the amount of electricity produced in France. Between 2007 and 2008, the renewable sectors gained enough momentum to gain another half percentage point share in the breakdown of total electricity production. China, that leads the field of countries that have supported this growth, is now the leading world producer of renewably-sourced electricity with 599.4 TWh in 2008. The commissioning of the last phase of the Three Gorges Dam has largely contributed to the 100 TWh increase in hydropower produced in China in the space of a year. Hydroelectricity, whose limits are far from being reached, is the country’s top renewable source. An additional 6,900 MW will shortly come on stream with the country’s third largest dam, the Longtan Dam. Hydraulics is also the top source of renewable electricity production in the world. It accounts for 86.3% of all renewable production leaving biomass (5.9%) and wind power (5.7%) trailing a long way behind.

Nonetheless the wind power sector has continued to put in remarkable performance with mean annual growth put at 29.4% between 1998 and 2008. The 100,000 MW mark for installed capacity worldwide was passed during the 1st half of 2008 and the GWEC (Global World Energy Council) forecasts accumulated capacity of 240,300 MW as of 2012. In China, wind power output has risen from 6.5 TWh in 2007 to 14.2 TWh in 2008. It has even been a resounding success in the United States, where production has risen from 34.6 TWh in 2007 to 52.4 TWh in 2008, i.e. a 51.5% increase. Furthermore the United States has become the world’s top wind power producer, ahead of Germany that leads the field in renewable energies in Europe. Its very active policy of supporting these sectors has enabled it to increase renewable electricity share by over 10 points from 5.2% in 1998 to 15.4% in 2008. Renewably-sourced electricity production has risen at the same time from 28.8 to 98.1 TWh, namely a mean annual increase of 13%.

On the European scale, the renewables’ share has also increased regularly. It has risen from 14.2% in 1998 to 17% in 2008, once again much of it through wind power, whose mean annual growth in the EU between 1998 and 2008 was 26.6%. Wind power, especially offshore wind power growth potential will not peak for a long time. Furthermore, the offshore wind power tests on floating foundations currently under way off the coast of Norway could open up a new high potential development channel for wind power for great ocean depths, once its currently prohibitive installation costs are brought down.

In contrast growth of the biomass sector across the world slowed down slightly between 2007 and 2008 as an additional 8.1 TWh was produced in 2008 over 2007, as against an additional 14.1 TWh between 2006 and 2007.

The other renewable sectors (solar, geothermal, and ocean energies), continued climbing up along the growth curve, adding to electricity production at a lower scale. Solar output rose in 2008 to a similar level as that of wind power in 1997, confirming the build-up and organisation of the sector. World installed capacity passed the 10,000 MWp mark in 2008 could exceed 20,000 MWp in 2010. Electricity capacity which rose to 7,910 MWp in 2008, put on an 85% spurt over 2007. The EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association) reckons that even in its “conservative” scenario, worldwide installed capacity should be in the vicinity of 21,600 MW in 2010 and enjoy very high growth levels after that. The growth photovoltaic electricity output has actually accelerated as it rose by 49% between 2007 and 2008 compared to the mean annual rate of 39.4% between 1998 and 2008. Production in the electro-solar power sector has picked up again with output increasing by 39.4% between 2007 and 2008, compared to the mean annual rate of 6.7% between 1998 and 2008. In 2008 solar power (photovoltaic and electro-solar sectors combined) produced an additional 4.2 TWh over 2007, for a total of 12.1 TWh.

Off-grid photovoltaic also kept up its momentum. The newly installed capacity in the ten countries surveyed in this inventory (Argentina, Brazil, India, Kenya, Mali, Morocco, Mexico, the Philippines, Senegal and South Africa), rose to 17.8 MWp in 2008 as against 16.8 MWp in 2007 (up 5.6%). Stand-alone photovoltaic systems were installed in 166,443 homes, bringing the total number of electrified households through photovoltaic in the ten countries targeted by the survey to over 1.8 million. However, it has to be noted with great regret that as the economic context is leading to a drop in aid being made available for decentralised rural electrification programmes in developing countries, isolated site photovoltaic installation should suffer more from the financial crisis during 2009 than the other renewable electricity sources.

The crisis has also had an impact on global electricity production, whose growth between 2007 and 2008 was only 1.8% whereas the mean annual rate between 1998 and 2008 was 3.5%.
Nevertheless, growth in output in a number of countries has been extraordinary. Over the past 10 years, China achieved a mean annual growth rate of 11.5% and in South Korea it was 7.5%. However the current rise in worldwide electricity production continuously increases greenhouse gas emissions, as electricity production from fossil energies is still about four times higher than that of renewable electricity. The share of nuclear power in global production is shrinking, despite a slight increase in production. The sector’s mean annual growth over the 1998-2008 period is only 1.1%.

Renewables thus still have a lot to offer and many countries have realised this. China intends to become the leading photovoltaic panel and wind turbine manufacturer. Its highly competitive stance will no doubt force European and American manufacturers to struggle for market share. Renewable energies will become even stronger, for we are no longer witnessing a ripple but a ground swell.