Preface

The global decrease in electricity output in 2009 – the only one if we look back at the last forty years – was nothing more than the manifestation of a particularly acute recession. The recovery in demand was fast in coming, even if the picture varied across the world’s regions. Global electricity output rose by 1 100 TWh in the twelve months of 2010, presenting the sharpest increase in absolute terms. This amounts to the equivalent of the electricity output of Japan, the world’s third largest economy, and was no doubt boosted by a ratcheting phenomenon. During the period, the renewably-sourced electricity share stood firm at 19.6% of global electricity production. The main underlying reasons for this are the spread of the solar and wind power sectors across the whole world and the commissioning of major hydroelectricity capacities, primarily in China.
The demand for energy should keep up its vigorous growth rate. In the New Policies Scenario of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2011, that makes allowance for the general political commitments and action plans announced to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global demand for energy (not just electricity) should increase by one-third of its current level between 2010 and 2035. The demand will increasingly be coming from the countries outside the OECD, for they will drive 70% of global economic growth and 90% of the growth in energy demand. The IEA reckons that US$ 37 900 billion of investment will be required in energy infrastructures across the world for the 2010-2035 period including US$ 16 900 billion for the electricity sector.
The IEA forecasts in this scenario, that the global level of CO2 emissions will lead to a mean temperature rise of more than 3.5 °C in the long-term and even rise to 6°C if new policies are not enforced.
It will be a tall order to honour the international community’s commitment announced at Copenhagen in 2009 and Cancun in 2010 to limit climate warming to below the threshold of 2°C above the pre-industrial era. The Climate Conference (COP 17) held in Durban in December 2011, nonetheless paved the way to setting up new economic, technological and financial mechanisms that should enable the next steps to be taken. However it must be said that the governments are rushing slowly! As the main objective of COP 17 was to work on a legally-binding agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the 194 countries have given themselves until 2015 to define the rules applicable to all and the instruments to be used for verifying individual country progress. The Green Climate Fund, initiated at the Cancun Conference, will be set up from 2020 onwards with an annual allocation of US$ 100 billion. Its aim will be to fund greenhouse gas-reducing projects in the developing countries. Intrinsically investments in renewable energy production will be eligible for this fund.

It is essential for Observ’ER, whose goal is to promote the use of renewable energies in the economy and society, to be well-appraised and kept abreast of the global learning curve of electricity production from stochastic energy sources… which is the whole purpose of this inventory. For renewables have more mileage for growth. What is more, they form a set of prime answers for overcoming the constraints on the planet, at least in part.

It is clear to EDF – a partner to this study for 13 years now – that the electricity sector has a key role to play by 2050 to meet the challenges for growth, economic development, security of energy supply and climate conservation. Accordingly, low-carbon economy and energy are the long-term path to take.

The most competitive technologies around today need to be deployed while investments in research and development are made to launch promising and innovative technological sectors. Renewable energies are called on to be tapped as expected alongside other low-carbon solutions to meet the growing demand for electricity.

The energy policies of different countries really need to be coordinated to avoid conflicting rules that could be counter-productive, between renewables, energy efficiency and the European carbon market. Greater convergence between the energy policies must be sought to achieve economic optimum.

These energy questions are at the heart of current debates. Our growth model must be collectively transformed to converge towards a more low-carbon, more resource-efficient society that fosters universal access to energy. EDF is committed to pursuing this sustainable path for the benefit of society through its diversified and low-carbon energy mix.

Alain Liébard
President of the Observatoire des énergies renouvelables

Claude Nahon
Environment and Sustainable Development Director, EDF